Remittances to Mexico face a 5% drop in 2025, driven by Donald Trump’s aggressive migrant policies, according to expert analysis.
This projection marks the end of eleven years of sustained growth in money transfers from the United States, the primary source of these funds. Families in dependent states will see reduced incomes, exacerbating economic vulnerabilities in a context of labor tensions and exchange rate fluctuations.
Remittances to Mexico: impact of Trump’s migrant policy
Enrique Díaz-Infante, UNAM academic, calculates a 5.8% decline, leaving incomes at around $61 billion, $3.7 billion less than in 2024. The deterioration of the US labor market and fear among migrants of deportation limit flows, he explains. Gabriela Siller, of Banco Base, agrees on a 5% nominal decline, highlighting how the appreciation of the Mexican peso erodes purchasing power.
States most vulnerable to the drop in remittances to Mexico
Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Oaxaca, and Zacatecas concentrate the greatest dependence, with remittances to Mexico exceeding 10% of their GDP in some cases. These resources finance basic consumption, food, and health, warn experts. A reduction directly impacts social mobility and hinders the fight against poverty.
Perspectives for 2026 and historical context
The panorama extends to 2026, with Banorte emphasizing factors such as US economic activity and migrant tensions. Historically, Mexico received $64.746 billion in 2024, solidifying its position as the world’s second-largest recipient after India. The average remittance rounds $394, or 7,000 pesos, but informal channels grow due to high costs of official channels, according to the Tecnológico de Monterrey.
Aggravating factors in remittances to Mexico
- Trump’s policies: Tougher migration policies reduce migrant employment.
- US labor market: Deterioration limits gains.
- Exchange rate: Weakness of the dollar against the peso.
In 2023, remittances to Mexico already showed signs of deceleration due to global inflation, but Trump’s measures accelerated the trend. Data from the Bank of Mexico confirms the vital role of these funds in family economies, equivalent to a pillar against regional inequality.
The drop in remittances to Mexico not only affects households but also local dynamics in the south and center of the country, where migration has been a survival driver for decades.
