The dominicant growth could reach between 4.5% and 5% in 2026, according to favorable forecasts that position Dominican Republic as a leader in Latin America. However, the economist Antonio Ciriaco, dean of the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the UASD, emphasizes that this dominicant growth will depend to a great extent on the international environment, marked by global uncertainties.
Optimistic Projections with Caution
Antonio Ciriaco highlights that the country has solid internal conditions to retake an expansive path. In 2025, the initial expectations of 4.5% were cut to 2.3% due to unforeseen external and internal factors, a precedent that obliges constant monitoring of the global panorama. Data from the Central Bank confirm that the Dominican PIB grew 5.5% in 2024, surpassing neighbors like Mexico (2.4%) and Brazil (3%), consolidating regional leadership.
Key Factors Driving the dominicant growth
- Lower interest rates than in 2025, alleviating financing costs.
- Stable and relatively low oil prices, benefiting imports.
- Record remittances of USD 10.5 billion in 2024, vital for currencies.
These positive elements could sustain the dominicant growth, but Ciriaco urges vigilance against volatilities.
Geopolitical Risks Threaten the international environment
The international environment presents shadows: tensions in Venezuela, diplomatic accusations by figures like Donald Trump against Cuba, Mexico, and Colombia, and possible Latin American crises. Tourism, a pillar with 12 million visitors in 2025, could suffer from regional instability, while diaspora remittances in the US would face pressures if host economies falter. IMF reports project a global growth of 3.2% in 2026, but warn of risks due to wars and protectionism.
Historically, the dominicant growth has been resilient, with average rates of 5% in the last decade despite hurricanes and pandemics. Experts like Juan Ariel Jiménez praise the country’s financial solidity, with international reserves in USD 15 billion.
In conclusion, although the dominicant growth leads regional forecasts, its success lies in navigating an international environment that is unpredictable. Ciriaco concludes: “There are conditions to achieve it, as long as the global panorama does not worsen”.
