Eliseo Almánzar analyzes closure of Ormuz and warns of an unprecedented global oil crisis due to the conflict with Iran. The Strait of Ormuz, a key route for 20 million barrels per day, remains blocked, generating a deficit of 14 million barrels per day in the global market.
In the program Politikal, the lawyer and geopolitics expert Eliseo Almánzar detailed how Saudi Arabia diverts production through the Red Sea and the United States increases exports, but the offer does not meet the demand. This closure of Ormuz strangles the energy supply, with estimates that it will take three to six months and repairs in Qatar up to five years.
Global oil crisis raises prices to critical levels
Oil prices reflect the tension: Texas near $110 and Brent at $120. Even in an optimistic scenario of peace in June, crude would not fall below $80, pressuring developing economies. Historically, the Strait of Ormuz has been vulnerable; in 2019, attacks on Iranian tankers already shot prices up 15% in days, according to reports from the International Energy Agency.
Impact on energy and fertilizers
Projections from the World Bank and Goldman Sachs estimate a 24% increase in global energy costs. Eliseo Almánzar analyzes closure of Ormuz and highlights the jump in fertilizers: average 31%, urea up to 60%. This threatens the food chain, with transportation and agricultural production directly affected.
Consequences in the Dominican Republic due to the closure of Ormuz
Imminent inflation in food
In the Dominican Republic, the domino effect is clear: first, fuel prices rise, then transportation, fertilizers, and the basic basket. Global oil crisis will cause food inflation from August, contradicting official minimizations. Eliseo Almánzar urges preparation for this reality.
“Fertilizers will increase on average worldwide 31%… urea, a 60%”, warned the analyst about the closure of Ormuz.
Experts like those from the IMF agree: disruptions in Ormuz could add 2-3 points to global inflation in 2026. Eliseo Almánzar analyzes closure of Ormuz as a catalyst for a global oil crisis that the Dominican Republic cannot avoid, demanding urgent measures in energy diversification and reserves.
The closure of Ormuz redefines the economic landscape; Eliseo Almánzar insists on his analysis to anticipate the global oil crisis.
