If the elections were today in the Dominican Republic, the board would be defined by consolidated leaders in PLD, Fuerza del Pueblo, and PRM, according to recent poll analysis and party dynamics. Although hypothetical, this scenario reveals key strengths and obstacles in a context of government wear-and-tear and fragmented opposition.
PLD: Danilo Medina as a nostalgic option
Within the PLD, Danilo Medina maintains significant political capital despite criticism for past mistakes. Sectors remember him fondly, but his candidacy requires a constitutional reform, which is politically unfeasible as it would also enable Luis Abinader and Hipólito Mejía. Historically, Medina governed from 2012 to 2020, driving an average annual economic growth of 6.6%, according to Central Bank data, although he faced corruption accusations that eroded his image.
If the elections were today: Fuerza del Pueblo in dispute
Leonel and Omar Fernández, father and son in the balance
If the elections were today, Fuerza del Pueblo would revolve around Leonel Fernández, with three presidencies (1996-2000, 2004-2008, 2008-2012), and his son Omar Fernández. Leonel carries high rejection, but polls well; Omar connects with youth, outperforming him in specific measurements, although the old guard holds him back. Experts such as CID Gallup analysts point out that Omar needs maturity for 2032, following the PRM’s wear-and-tear. An opposition victory would require total unity and crisis within the ruling party, as happened in 2020 with scandals that favored change.
- Leonel’s strengths: experience and loyal base.
- Omar’s strengths: freshness and youth projection.
- Obstacles: weak territorial structure and generational rejections.
PRM: Collado and Mejía lead polls
In the PRM, David Collado dominates polls with a double-digit lead, thanks to his scandal-free management at the Ministry of Tourism and growing popularity. He went from being labeled boring to a favorite, with business backing. Carolina Mejía, a charismatic mayor, stands out in party recognition, but struggles for territorial visibility. Both avoid risks, but internal alliances or loyalties to Hipólito could complicate primaries. Internal polls from December 2025 confirm their leadership, with Collado at 35-40% preferences.
If the elections were today, a cohesive PRM would emerge stronger if it prioritizes unity over sweeping conventions. Poorly managed internal processes historically punish at the polls, as in past PLD cycles. Economic crises or corruption could tip the balance, remembering that voters punish the government more than they reward weak oppositions.
Ultimately, if the elections were today, the pulse between experience, renewal, and party unity would define the winners in a volatile landscape.
