Extreme heat could strike 41% of the world’s population by 2050, equivalent to some 3.8 billion people, if the planet exceeds 2°C of global warming. This projection comes from a rigorous study by the University of Oxford, recently published, which warns of an increasingly realistic scenario according to climate experts.
From 23% to 41%: The Alarming Increase in Extreme Heat
In 2010, only 23% of humanity faced extreme heat conditions, but with the advance of climate change, that figure would double in four decades. The report details that equatorial and tropical regions, such as much of Africa, South Asia, and Latin America, will suffer the worst heatwaves combined with high humidity, making unprotected outdoor work impossible.
Regions Most Vulnerable to Extreme Heat
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Up to 2 billion exposed, with agriculture-dependent economies collapsing.
- India and Pakistan: Cities like Delhi will see extreme heat that multiplies mortality risks.
- Latin America: Countries like Brazil and Mexico will face extreme heat affecting crops and public health.
Extreme heat, defined as temperatures above 35°C with high relative humidity, already causes thousands of deaths annually. IPCC data confirms that events like the 2023 heatwaves in Europe, which killed tens of thousands, will become the norm.
Expert Opinions and Historical Background
The lead researcher of the study, Friederike Otto, emphasizes that without drastic emission cuts, extreme heat will be irreversible. Historically, the 2015 Paris Agreement sought to limit warming to 1.5°C, but current projections point to 2.5°C by the end of the century. In the Dominican Republic, intense storms and droughts already evidence local impacts of extreme heat.
“Extreme heat is not a future problem; it is already here and demands immediate action,” Otto declares in the report.
Recent UN statistics indicate that 2024 was the hottest year on record, accelerating these trends. Emerging economies, with fewer resources for adaptation, will pay the highest price for extreme heat.
To mitigate this, experts urge rapid energy transitions and protection for vulnerable workers. In the Caribbean, including the Dominican Republic, resilience plans are crucial in the face of the imminent extreme heat that will transform daily life for 41% of the global population by 2050.
