Latin America caught in the China and U.S. rivalry. is a warning that is gaining strength again after the recent publication of the 2025 National Security Strategy of the United States, a document that reorients Washington’s geopolitical priorities with a special emphasis on the Caribbean region and the American continent.
According to Juan González, political scientist and professor of Political Science at the Autonomous University of Santo Domingo, the U.S. administration has revived the “Big Stick” diplomacy to curb China’s advance in Latin America. This strategy, based on a Trump corollary inspired by the 19th‑century Monroe Doctrine, posits that Washington will use its political, economic and military power to prevent China from controlling strategic assets in the region.
The document explicitly acknowledges China’s growing capacity to challenge the United States in economic, technological, scientific and military spheres, and therefore preventive measures are being taken.
The rise of China and its consolidation in the region
Just two decades ago, trade relations between China and Latin America were limited, but today the exchange exceeds $500 billion annually, an exponential growth from $20 billion in 2000. This boom is driven by factors such as the rejection of ALCA, U.S. attention to other regions after 9/11, the increase in Chinese demand for natural resources, and the formation of Latin American entities focused on autonomy such as CELAC.
Strategic projects such as the port of Chancay in Peru, financed with more than $3.5 billion by China, are part of the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative. This project aims to connect the Pacific with the Atlantic via a bi‑oceanic railway corridor, which could significantly alter the region’s economic and logistical dynamics.
Pressures and counter‑pressures: politics and security at stake
The Trump corollary reflects the U.S. incentive policy toward governments that align with its interests, such as the multi‑million dollar economic support to Argentina to counteract projects linked to China. Likewise, pressure is applied against strategic contracts managed by Chinese companies, such as ports in the Panama Canal zone, which are sought to be transferred to Western hands.
In countries such as Mexico and Brazil, strategic Chinese projects have been blocked or avoided to maintain smooth relations with the United States. There are also sanctions and blocks against officials of governments deemed contrary to U.S. interests, evidencing the growing militarization and confrontation that recalls the Cold War.
A call for caution and regional strategy
In light of this situation, González warns that Latin America caught in the China and U.S. rivalry must manage its foreign policy with caution, shrewdness and diplomacy, learning from Asian countries that balance their relations with both powers without taking clear sides. The region faces one of the greatest geopolitical tensions in its modern history, compelling its states to prioritize national interest to avoid being caught in this superpower dispute.
The rivalry between China and the United States in Latin America will continue shaping the continent’s politics, economy and security, making it essential for Latin American countries to devise smart strategies to avoid losing autonomy or stability in the face of this global contest.
