The Superintendencia de Bancos (SB) published today a report that links accumulated exposure to episodes of intense rain or prolonged drought with a higher risk of default in the commercial credit portfolio of the Dominican Republic. The analysis covers data from November 2013 to December 2025 and includes 17 economic activities.
Sectoral: differentiated effects by precipitation
For low precipitation cases, the probability of default increased in Public Administration and Defense (2.4 pp), Construction (1.9 pp) and Commerce (0.2 pp). Among the most sensitive sectors, Public Administration and Defense stands out, with a variation of 2.4 percentage points.
At the other extreme, intense rains are associated with increases of 2.4 pp in Financial and Insurance Activities, 1.2 pp in Transportation and Storage, and 0.6 pp in Manufacturing Industry.
Projections under high‑emission scenario
The report projects risk out to 2050 under the SSP5‑8.5 scenario. For 2030, the greatest drought exposure is concentrated in Monseñor Nouel (1.9 pp), Samaná (1.6 pp) and La Altagracia (1.3 pp). Regarding intense rains, Independencia (3.4 pp) and Bahoruco (3.1 pp) show the highest impacts.
Impact on the commercial portfolio
Drought‑sensitive activities represent approximately 23 % of the total portfolio, while those responding to intense rain make up about 38 %. However, in Bahoruco and Independencia, the share of these sectors in commercial debt is below 1 %, limiting their effect on systemic stability.
Limitations and warnings
The SB rates the exercise as preliminary, noting the short climatological period analyzed, the possible influence of external factors, and the assumption of a constant sectoral composition in the projections.
Source credits: n.com.do
